A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
